UFC draws first blood in MMA war

Okay, so what now? That’s what everybody’s asking now that the dust has settled. Affliction is gone and Fedor Emelianenko, the most-prized fighter on the planet not already in the UFC, has signed a three-fight deal with Strikeforce.

It was a deal with the devil that the promotion had to make, that the UFC practically put a gun to their head and forced them to make. Strikeforce needs a big name, the biggest, so they can have something to market, to bring in ratings and lock down that elusive primetime CBS deal they’ve been chasing. Gina Carano was the first piece of the puzzle.

Tito Ortiz was supposed to be the second. The former UFC light heavyweight champ was all-but-signed to a four-fight Strikeforce contract when UFC president Dana White buried the hatchet and re-signed him. Ortiz would’ve given Strikeforce another marquee name, a franchise player to throw into the marketing mix. When he disappeared off the table they then had no choice but to go after Fedor even though the UFC was also interested. Hell, most of us thought the UFC was a done deal and that Strikeforce had no real shot. How wrong we were.

And now Strikeforce is crossing its fingers that Fedor doesn’t turn into their Kimbo Slice, someone who collapses after one punch. God forbid if Fedor loses his first fight with Strikeforce.

So they sign Fedor, steal him out from underneath the UFC. And suddenly, a bridesmaid outfit like Strikeforce is looking to walk down the aisle. That’s not going to make Dana White very happy. Oh, he’ll talk a good game about how competition is healthy, how it’s good for the sport, but really he wants to crush them. To him, mixed martial arts is like the NBA or NFL. And there’s only one NBA or NFL. If you’re the best, you play for the best, the UFC, or you don’t play at all. In effect, war has been declared.

Now, Strikeforce is not raising the white flag, or shoring up their defenses, or sitting around with their thumbs up their asses praying that their Fedor gambit is enough to put them over the top. Because it isn’t. You can’t build an entire organization around one franchise player. And they know it.

Except they have a problem: they have a pretty thin roster of heavyweights for Fedor to fight – current champ Alistair Overeem, Brett Rogers (who knocked out past-his-best-before-date former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski in 22 seconds but is relatively untested otherwise), Fabricio Werdum (who choked out Emelianenko’s younger brother, Aleksander, three years ago but just got knocked out by UFC up-and-comer Junior Dos Santos) and that’s about it.

That must’ve played a part in Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker’s decision to sign a partnership with the Japanese DREAM fight promotion. As he revealed on The Carmichael Dave Radio Show on Monday, the number two MMA promotion in America is forming an alliance with the number one promotion in Japan.

It’s a deal that opens up potential foes for Fedor. It could also see the former PRIDE FC champion fighting in Japan, where he’s worshipped like a god. And because his contract isn’t exclusive, as it would’ve been with the UFC (save for combat sambo competitions), it leaves the door open for him to fight in Japan’s annual New Year’s Eve blockbuster show, because it just doesn’t feel like the holidays until the Russian beats the crap out of some pituitary case at the super-hulk sideshow while we sip champagne and count down to midnight.

Besides more opponents for Fedor, it provides Strikeforce with access to an entire pool of top-ranked fighters: Joachim Hansen (DREAM lightweight champion), Shinya Aoki, Marius Zaromskis (welterweight champion), Bibiano Fernandes, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Jason “Mayhem” Miller, Joe Warren, Hiroyuki Takaya and Hideo Tokoro. And the two promotions already share the services of former DREAM middleweight champion and current top Strikeforce light heavyweight contender Gegard Mousasi, who also happens to be under contract with Fedor’s management, M-1 Global.

Suddenly, Strikeforce (or Strikeforce/M-1 Global/DREAM) cards become must-see events, and could have the ancillary effect of pushing non-UFC fighters further up the world rankings. Dana White will have a harder time convincing people that the best fighters in the world are in the UFC (he’s already lost the best, Fedor).

But as Michael Rome over at Bloody Elbow asks, What did Strikeforce really get when they signed Fedor? He’s not well-known outside of MMA circles (although the past two weeks of media attention will certainly improve his name recognition), he’s been slagged by fans for not fighting the best despite a 30-1 record, and his pay-per-view drawing power is sub-par; as Rome points out, Fedor’s best PPV was against Arlovski and it would be considered a complete disaster for even the worst UFC show.

And how will the UFC wage war? By scheduling monster PPVs around Strikeforce events (call it counter-programming, MMA-style), and by offering fighters contracts that they really can’t refuse. Never mind Fedor – if he actually wins his three fights in Strikeforce to become champion, and that’s a big fucking “if,” then we’ll talk about whether White would try to poach him. What about Brett Rogers (Brock Lesnar’s going to run out of opponents eventually), Jake Shields or Nick Diaz? Their contracts will expire and the UFC will come knocking. What about Gina Carano? The UFC might not have a women’s division now, but when I spoke with White last year he was already considering the possibility. Carano’s about as marketable an MMA fighter as there is. And the UFC has a far bigger war chest than Strikeforce (if Donald Trump and Mark Cuban, two of the richest, craziest businessmen in the world, couldn’t make a go of Affliction, what chance does Strikeforce have if the UFC really sets its sights on putting them out of buiness?).

Put another way, Dana White will take a page from Conan (the barbarian, not the talkshow goofball) and rape and pillage Strikeforce if only to hear the lamentations of Scott Coker.

So what can Coker do? As Dave Meltzer over at Yahoo! Sports points out, signing Fedor was a good opening volley. They already have a deal with Showtime, which wants to focus on PPV events, which runs counter to Strikeforce’s agenda thus far. That may have to change. Strikeforce is also working on a deal to air fights in network primetime on CBS, which is under the same corporate umbrella (Viacom) as Showtime. MMA was a ratings hit for CBS when it aired Elite XC fights, thanks in large part to the marketability of larger-than-life characters like Kimbo Slice and Gina Carano.

Strikeforce still has Carano (for now) and now they’ve got the number one fighter in the world. The question is whether they can capitalize on him. MMA diehards will watch, but what about the casual viewers, or the mildly interested non-fan? Of course, Fedor’s only half the equation, which is why the DREAM deal is so important – Fedor needs strong opponents who can also be packaged and sold to the public. He also needs to not lose. I can’t emphasize that enough. He must not lose.

His first fight will likely be a gimme of some sort, certainly an easier road than the UFC and Lesnar presented. It won’t be a title shot against Overeem. Strikeforce will want to let the hype on that one marinade a little bit. But it will air on Showtime in October. Expect his second fight to test his primetime potential if the CBS deal can be worked out. If that happens, he’ll be the most-visible MMA fighter in history. That raises the stature of the sport and Strikeforce and will piss Dana White off even more (especially since he’s been trying to get a network TV deal for quite a while). For the third fight they bring in Overeem, assuming neither he nor Fedor have lost, which is a very big assumption and makes the whole thing an even bigger gamble for Strikeforce. The moment Fedor loses Dana White gets to declare whoever the UFC heavyweight champ is at the time – likely still Lesnar – as the best fighter in the world.

If you’re still confused about why Fedor signed with Strikeforce it’s pretty simple. Sure, the UFC deal was probably more personally lucrative (somewhere between $2-$60million per fight once a share of PPV revenues were tallied plus the promotional boost fighting in the biggest fight promotion in the world provides). But the UFC wouldn’t allow for M-1 Global to co-promote events. The sole sticking point.

Or so I thought until I remembered all the smack talking White has done in regards to the fighter, which ceased during the last few weeks only to begin anew once Fedor signed with Strikeforce, to wit: “Fedor is a fucking joke. He turns down a huge deal and the opportunity to face the best in the world to fight nobodies for no money. I feel sorry for the real fight fans. I wanted to make the deal, but it takes two and it is very obvious Fedor doesn’t want to fight the best, and doesn’t give a fuck about the fans.”

Fedor certainly hasn’t forgotten. “Numerous times have I read Mister White’s statements on Internet concerning myself. In my opinion, allowing yourself to say those things is not a sign of a gentleman or a grown man at all!” he wrote in an open letter to White last year. I have to believe that simply not liking your new boss is a good enough reason to turn down a job, especially when money really isn’t an issue (i.e. Fedor is already loaded).

So Strikeforce makes their play, takes their gamble, rolls the dice, puts most if not all of their eggs in Fedor’s basket (not unlike the now defunct Affliction). And let’s say it works. Consider this: If the Fedor fight on CBS is a success, how many fighters, how many UFC heavyweights, might be interested in a piece of that when their contracts end? All you need is the first domino to fall. Randy Couture still wants a crack at the Russian (and it’s not like he’ll ever seriously contend for either the light heavyweight or heavyweight belt again). What about a quasi-semi-sorta-but-not-quite-retired Chuck Liddell? Or old Pride enemy Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira? Or Frank Mir? Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic? Or Cheick Kongo? Or anyone else already vanquished by or not interested in fighting Lesnar? Hell, even Lesnar could jump ship for a chance to feed his ego and prove he really is the best heavyweight in the world while drinking whatever damn beer he wants. Suddenly, Strikeforce is where all the baddest heavyweights go. Followed by the light heavies, the middleweights, welterweights and so on. Dominos, man, dominos…

But first, Fedor Emelianenko has to win.

Oh, and he needs to learn to speak English, fluent English, the kind of English that can sell Nike shoes to the legless. Because Strikeforce is going to need him to do lots of interviews, sign endorsement deals, make commercials and not come across as a Gulag commandant.