Maia needs to channel Wanderlei

The most significant fight on Saturday’s UFC 102 card, the one with the biggest payoff for the winner and the most ramifications for its respective weight class, is the middleweight match-up between Demian Maia and Nate Marquardt.

While Dan Henderson would appear to be next in line to face champ Anderson Silva, UFC president Dana White isn’t ruling out either Maia or Marquardt getting a shot. Or perhaps the winner will fight Henderson to decide who gets a crack at Silva (which is what Silva says should happen).

And purely from a fan perspective, the opportunity to see Maia test his mondo jiu-jitsu mojo against his first truly top-class opponent is worth the price of admission.

Maia is the true heir to Royce Gracie, a pure Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner who’s garnished his world-class skill-set with a little striking (courtesy of Wanderlei Silva) and a touch of wrestling. Maia is a sport jiu-jitsu master – three-time World Cup champion, two-time World Champion, 2006 Pan-American champion, 2007 ADCC Submission Wrestling world champion – whose jiu-jitsu is just as lethal in MMA.

His record is 10-0 as a pro while his current 5-0 run in the UFC includes submission wins over Ryan Jensen, Ed Herman, Jason MacDonald, Nate Quarry and Chael Sonnen – all by either a triangle or rear-naked choke. Maia gets fights to the ground and from there it’s like watching a cat play with a mouse.

But he’s never faced anyone as well-rounded as Marquardt. The Greg Jackson-trained BJJ black belt and record seven-time King of Pancrase is 28-8-2 in MMA and 7-2 in the UFC. Among his UFC wins are Ivan Sallaverry, Martin Kampmann and Wilson Gouveia. Grappling champs Thales Leites and Dean Lister couldn’t submit him; neither could Joe Doerksen or Jeremy Horn, who have 82 submission victories between them. His only octagon losses were to Anderson Silva at UFC 73 (no shame there) and Leites at UFC 85, who eked out a split decision after Marquardt was deducted two points for a controversial illegal strike.

Marquardt has strong stand-up – he ran through Kampmann like he had a cab waiting for him and dispatched Gouveia with some serious Mortal Kombat moves – and he’s also significantly larger than the rather ordinary-sized Maia.

I’d love for Maia to win – I almost always root for the jiu-jitsu fighter over the striker – but so far he’s proven to be very one-dimensional in the cage. And Marquardt is very, very three-dimensional.

The thing that worries me is whether or not Maia possesses the killer instinct, the shark-smelling-blood attack mode needed to finish big fights. He’s even said he doesn’t want to hurt people, which is why he loves jiu-jitsu. He can make opponents tap or nap without making them bleed. I respect that, but can he win fights at the top of the food chain if he’s not willing to bare his fangs?

With Marquardt using his size, strength and superior striking to dictate where the fight takes place, Maia is going to have to summon his inner Wanderlei, eat some punches, throw some punches, get this fight to the mat. And if he can do that, if he can weather the early storm Marquardt is sure to throw at him, then he can start to play his game, work in is dimension and tap out another win.