Breaking down Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin

To help FW break down UFC 111’s interim heavyweight title bout between Frank Mir and Shane Carwin, we’ve asked Revolution MMA’s Joel Gerson, a former fighter, Canadian jiu-jitsu champ and training partner to Carlos Newton, to weigh in.

FW: Mir has been champ. He knows what it takes. He’s come back from adversity. He’s got great jiu-jitsu, good stand-up (just ask Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cheick Kongo) and he’s packed on 30-plus pounds of muscle, putting him close to Carwin in size, at least at the time of the weigh-ins. Carwin has strong wrestling and he hits like a truck, having stopped all 11 of his opponents in the first round. But he hasn’t fought in over a year while he’s waited for Brock Lesnar to come back. So, straight to the point – who takes it?

JG: This is a tough one to call without seeing each fighter’s training camp, but I’m gonna go out on a ledge and say Carwin via GnP. I think the heavyweight curse will rear its ugly head and we won’t see a Mir vs. Lesnar PPV just yet. I know Mir is focused on getting to Lesnar, and he says he’s wrapped his head around Carwin first, but he has to be very careful not to overlook the monster in Carwin.

I think style-wise it could be a long night for Mir assuming Carwin has been working on his submission defense and boxing for a year solid. While Carwin’s striking looked rudimentary in his last fight, we saw that he doesn’t need much in the way of “snap” to be able to “death touch” heavyweights with arm punches in order to unplug them. Mir may have made short work of Kongo, but Kongo mostly looks like the king of the jungle and has never really shown the well-rounded skills or finishing game to be considered top of the MMA food chain. A driven Mir was tailor=made to expose Kongo’s ground skills, poor balance, and lack of KO power for his size. I think Carwin may experience some scary moments on the ground with Mir, but barring a bad scramble, and assuming he did his homework with good training partners to mimic Mir’s aggressive submission game, I think he has a good chance to cash in on the next Lesnar PPV.

FW: I have to agree with your assessment. Although it’s strange to think that the fighter with more tools in his toolbelt won’t come out on top. Then again, we saw exactly that in Sunday’s Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga match-up, which has a lot in common with Mir/Carwin in terms of being a battle between a jiu-jitsu fighter who can strike against a pure power puncher. Granted, Carwin has better wrestling than dos Santos, but his boxing isn’t as strong (or at least, wasn’t the last time he fought over a year ago; who knows what’s happened since then?).

If the fight goes into the later rounds – hell, if it makes it out of the first round – I have to give the edge to Mir. Carwin has never fought more than 2:11 of any fight. He hasn’t had to. But I think Mir, with his added bulk, superior striking, better ground game and more adept octagon control (meaning he’ll do a better job of dictating the pace and deciding where the fight takes place), could give him a huge advantage. But just as Mir shouldn’t be looking past Carwin to a rematch with Lesnar, I just can’t look past Carwin’s big freight train fists.

JG: I agree with that point. Big muscles require big oxygen. If this fight goes into deep water, I think Mir will have an advantage as Carwin’s bulk and relative inexperience will hinder him. But I’m going to bet it doesn’t (but I’m not betting a lot).

To summarize, the questions that will be answered Saturday are:

1. Is Mir mentally ready to face Carwin?
2. How much has Carwin’s striking developed, and has he found new ways of landing that widow-making right hand?
3. Did he bring in the right training partners to try and submit him every day in training camp? And let’s not overlook…
4. How will a year off outside the octagon affect Carwin?

There you have it. Carwin would seem to have the edge, but nobody’s betting the house on it. Tomorrow Joel will help us break down Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy.