Breaking down GSP vs. Dan Hardy

Yesterday, Revolution MMA’s Joel Gerson, a former fighter, Canadian jiu-jitsu champ and training partner to Carlos Newton, joined us to weigh-in on UFC 111’s interim heavyweight title bout between Frank Mir and Shane Carwin. Today, he’s here to discuss the card’s other title bout, welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy.

FW: Short of taking inspiration from the ending of Gladiator and stabbing him backstage before the fight, how can Hardy beat GSP?

JG: Hardy has about as much chance as bacon at a kosher deli. I mean seriously, what’s Hardy going to do? Stab him with his mohawk? The UFC marketing machine has gotten into the Kool-Aid again, trying to build up a fight that, while interesting, is not terribly competitive.

GSP can put this fight where he wants to, whenever he wants to, which is to say on the ground and at any time. Hardy’s only chance is catching GSP early and by surprise, which is very difficult, and that’s about it. As soon as the fight hits the ground, all the rubber guard in the world won’t mean crap when the guy who neutralized Matt Serra and BJ Penn is on top of you making poutine out of your face.

FW: While I completely agree, allow me to play Devil’s advocate for a moment. Hardy’s only chance of winning is with his striking. It doesn’t matter how much he trains with Serra, a BJJ black belt under Renzo Gracie, with whom GSP trains. Short of plugging his mohawked skull into the Matrix, he’ll never beat GSP on the ground. Granted, he’s probably primarily working submission defense (and hopefully some takedown defense, as well, considering the ease with which the champ is able to get the fight to the ground against everybody).

So that makes me wonder just how good his striking really is. He says he’s going to knock GSP out – and how I love his moxy – but short of a Serra-like puncher’s chance, can he mount an effective assault? I consider Thiago Alves to be a far superior striker yet he couldn’t fire off more than two or three strikes before finding himself on his ass against GSP.

That said, GSP has admitted in recent interviews that he’s not happy with his stand-up lately, that he hasn’t been finishing fights the way he’d like, that a champion is expected to end fights decisively and not just grind out safe dominating wins. GSP has never knocked out a fighter and I do wonder if he has knockout power. If he does decide to stand and trade with Hardy to try and get that KO, that leaves him open to Hardy’s attack.

JG: GSP won’t be stupid enough to get into a slugfest with Hardy. GSP doesn’t like to get hit. The difference with Thiago was that GSP had a 5- or 6-inch reach advantage. That forced Thiago to have to come in, and once he did, he was ripe for the double. Hardy will have an advantage over Alves in that he will force GSP to shoot from further out (not that it will make a difference). GSP 4.0 will probably come out with more explosive takedowns than we’ve seen in the past and I just don’t see Hardy clipping him. It’s possible, but the balance of probabilities is in GSP’s corner.

Furthermore, who is the mastermind in Hardy’s corner coming up with gameplans? In the countdown show I see a lot of “helpers” but no master strategist. This is concerning. But especially concerning is the lack of any concrete wrestling training on Hardy’s part. This leads me to believe he is practically expecting to get taken down, because the attitude of “I’m going to KO GSP” is simply theoretical unless you are able to stop his takedown and have the fastest hands at 170, which is not Hardy’s case.

I predicted BJ would expose Diego Sanchez and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a technical and methodical dismantling of Hardy. God may save the Queen, but not Hardy’s record against GSP.