Why’s everybody putting their bones on Jon Jones? My money’s on Shogun

Disrespect. That’s the best way to describe the hype surrounding UFC 128’s light heavyweight title bout on Saturday. You’d never know from the media and from the way the UFC is pumping up Jon Jones (he even got his own Spike TV special), but Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is the defending champ. Remember him? The guy who decisively ended the Machida Era after everybody had written him off as too battered and used up?

Yet everybody has Rua pegged as the underdog. How is that even possible? Has everybody been suckered by the youngster’s flash and flying elbows?

I get that Jones is the shiny new toy and everybody loves a shiny new toy. He’s bigger, faster, more explosive, a freakishly gifted athlete and has a definite reach advantage. He’s also unpredictable but not that technical, something which his quickness and athleticism has thus far allowed him to get away with. And he’s got skinny little cicada legs perfect for kicking, and we all know how much Rua likes to kick the legs (and check out the video to see just how powerful those kicks are).

Sure, Jones also has youth on his side – he’s 23 and has ruined the likes of Matt Hamill, Brandon Vera and Ryan Bader en route to a 12-1 record.

But when Rua was 23 and 12-1 he’dd already beaten Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos, Akihiro Gono, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona en route to the PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix title. Doesn’t quite compare, does it? Oh yeah, and he’s also knocked out Overeem (a second time), Chuck Liddell (before his chin got soft) and Lyoto Machida (when he was considered untouchable) since winning that belt.

In fact, Rua has won 19 fights, 16 by knockout or TKO, and he’s only been finished three times, two losses by submission and one by a fluke broken arm. And he says he’s healthier than ever despite a couple of knee surgeries.

Rua is a Muay Thai wrecking machine fuelled by Chute Boxe-style aggression. He will see a weakness – and Jones has many – and he will swarm. Jones has the reach advantage, but when he throws a punch, which he rarely does in combination, and he misses, he misses by a lot, leaving himself open to some of the best counter-striking in the game. Long limbs also mean big angles and that’s something Rua will be working very hard to cut off.

And Rua’s just as capable of making the highlight reels with head kicks as Jones is with his spinning elbows of death. Yep, Jones can wrestle (and Rua’s takedown defense is sub-par), but what else can he do?  Besides, Rua’s also dangerous on the ground, a BJJ black belt who’s most recent training partner has been Demian Maia, and those long limbs of Jones’s can get tied into knots awfully easily.

That said, a Jones win is hardly out of the question. It wouldn’t even surprise me. But my money’s on Shogun. It’s the safer bet, no matter what the oddsmakers are telling you.